马尔可夫预测法.xls

某某企企业业过过去去3636个个月月的的经经营营状状况况当期所处状态（t）下下一一期期所所处处状状态态Pij盈利持平亏本合计盈利37515持平72413亏本45211一一步步转转移移概概率率表表下下一一期期所所处处状状态态Pij盈利持平亏本盈利0.2000.4670.333持平0.5380.1540.308亏本0.3640.4550.1821515 月月份份经经营营预预测测Pij盈利持平亏本盈利0.3640.3540.282持平0.3680.3510.281亏本0.3650.3540.282趋趋势势预预测测分分析析表表厂厂级级 项项目目 权权数数WiWi增增加加(+)(+)不不变变(=)(=)减减少少(-)(-)厂厂数数nini WI(+)WI(+)WI(=)WI(=)WI(-)WI(-)甲(W1)W1n11n12n13n1W1n11W1n12W1n13乙(W2)W2n21n22n23n2W2n21W2n22W2n23丙(W3)W3n31n32n33n3W3n31W3n32W3n33 对前3行求和nWini1Wini2 Wini3Wini 投资趋势概率Pp1p2p3趋趋势势预预测测分分析析表表厂厂级级 项项目目 权权数数WiWi 增增加加(+)(+)不不变变(=)(=)减减少少(-)(-)厂厂数数nini WI(+)WI(+)WI(=)WI(=)WI(-)WI(-)甲(W1)2.5365147.51512.5乙(W2)16129612丙(W3)4531920124 对前3行求和3233.52818.580 投资趋势概率P0.420.350.23